Election Security And Policy Concerns
James P. Howard, II <james.howard@jhu.edu>
2020 INFORMS—Coronavirus Edition
About Me
- Data scientist at the Johns Hopkins Applied Physics Laboratory
- Candidate for state delegate in Maryland in 2018
- Candidate for convention delegate in 2020
- Other:
- Served as Election Judge in 2004
- Worked on numerous campaigns as volunteer
- Counted ballots in 1998
- Done this my entire life...
Elections in America
- Extremely decentralized
- 51 different state elections
- DC is a state for this purpose
- Most devolve election authority
- Local government entities run
- Counties/cities do nuts and bolts
- Share results with state authorities
- State election authorities tabulate
- Tabulate multijurisdiction results
- Manage reporting and compliance
Presidential Elections
- Many moving parts
- The primaries
- The general
- System has grown over time
- Mostly an
ad hoc collection of processes
- Mostly an
- Almost none of this system was designed
- And the Republicans and Democrats
do primaries differently...
Republican Party
- Allocates delegates to states
- Base amounts for each state
- More for each congressional district
- Some allocations for territories and DC
- Superdelgates
- Some reserved positions for state party representatives
- And some for governors and other state elected officials
Democratic Party
- Allocates delegates to states
- Proprortion of votes each state gave to Democratic candidates in three prior elections
- Also allocates some to 5 U.S. territories and Democrats abroad
- Superdelgates
- Reserved positions for major Democratic officeholders
- Governors, members of Congress, and "distinguished party leaders"
More About Primaries
- These are private elections
- They are run by the state, but private
- You don't actually vote for the candidate
- You vote for the delegates who vote for the candidate
- Each state may differ in approach
- Elections
- Caucuses
- Scheduled whenever
Election Day!
- You vote!
- You may vote for a candidate...
- The state tallies up all the votes
- Allocates all of the states Electoral votes to the candidate
- Except Nebraska and Maine...because, of course
- This is why the "loser" may win
- None of this is Federally-run
- It's all done by the states
The Electoral College
- State certifies the results
- Only 50 states and DC
- o territories, other
- Electors get selected
- Electors cast their ballots
- Which are usually the same
- But sometimes, not
- "Faithless electors"
- And all the Electoral College votes are sent to Congress
Mail-In Balloting
- We've had mail-in balloting forever
- We call it absentee voting!
- Some states already do exclusive mail-in voting:
- Five states, starting in 2000
- Other states, notably California rolling it out
- No substantive issues with security found
- Higher voter participation found, but may not vote-stick
- Voter fraud is basically non-existent
What Does This Mean?
- The entire electoral system is extremely decentralized
- No local area oversees more than about 10M population
- Los Angeles County: 4.3M voters
- Mean county population is about 100,000
- Mean registered voters somewhere around 50,000
- State rules differ from state to state
- Counties have some freedom in implementing rules
- Many different standards and transfer mechanisms
- Strong diversification of methods and mechanisms
Why does this matter?
Hacking the election is hard!
Election Security And Policy Concerns James P. Howard, II < james.howard@jhu.edu > 2020 INFORMS—Coronavirus Edition