Risk & Uncertainty
Rare events, bad denominators, public fear, and the difficult business of deciding before the outcome is known.
Selected Essays
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Effective Challenge Is Now Optional
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When Every Bank's AI Fails Together
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The Infrastructure We Dismantled
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The Data Center Water Crisis That Isn't
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Vaccines Do Work
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Why is mRNA in My Vaccine?
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How Do We Know a COVID-19 Vaccine Will Work?
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The Risk of Dying From COVID-19
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Understanding Radioactive Exposure
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Why You Should Get Your Flu Shot
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What is a 100-year flood?
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Statistical Likelihood of Extreme Events and the Ellicott City Floods
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Terrorism Policysplainer
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Probability at Scale and KIC 8462852
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Applying Bayes to KIC 8462852
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Bitcoin Mining Pools and Income Smoothing